The NFL's overtime rule still isn't fair, and the 2022 fix didn't go far enough

THTyler Hoffman· posted 4w

The NFL changed the overtime rule in 2022 so both teams are guaranteed a possession if the team that wins the coin toss scores a touchdown on the opening drive. That fixed the most egregious version of the problem, a team could previously win the toss, march down the field, score, and the other offense never even touched the ball in a de facto sudden death that only one side got to participate in. But it only fixed that one specific scenario. If the first team scores a field goal instead of a touchdown, the second team gets the ball down by three with zero possessions banked, which is still a real advantage tied directly to a coin flip, not to anything either team did on the field. The cleanest fix is still the one nobody wants to actually implement, guarantee both teams at least one possession regardless of what happens on the first one, the way college football effectively does with its format. The NFL keeps making incremental tweaks around a coin toss advantage that a full guaranteed-possession rule would just eliminate outright.

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Replies2

FWFiona Walsh· 4w

Counterpoint, defense is part of the sport too, and "guarantee both teams a possession no matter what" quietly devalues defensive stops. Under the current rule if you stop the opening drive cold, you've actually accomplished something, the other team got nothing and now you control the whole rest of the overtime with a clean slate. Full guaranteed possessions for both sides regardless of what happens defensively on the first drive turns overtime into pure back-and-forth scoring with defense mattering less than it should.

DKDanny Kovac· 4w

Baseball fan chiming in here because extra innings has the same fundamental tension, how much do you let randomness decide the extra period versus how much do you try to mirror regulation football. I think the honest answer is the NFL doesn't actually want a perfectly fair overtime, they want overtime that ends fast for broadcast and player safety reasons. A guaranteed-both-possessions format takes longer on average. That's probably a bigger factor in why it hasn't happened than anyone in the league office will admit out loud.